According to market research firm Prismark, the third and fourth quarters will experience growth of 4% yearly. Demand for PCB is anticipated to increase for servers, industries, and vehicles.
PCB Market Projected to Rise
The global PCB market is predicted to rebound from the second quarter and expand in comparison to the previous year in the third and fourth quarters of the year. The global PCB market is anticipated to expand by 4% year over year due to declining consumer demand. Despite the generally poor state of the sector, PCB demand for cars, businesses, and servers is anticipated to increase.
The global printed circuit board (PCB) industry will continue to recover from the second quarter, according to a prediction made on August 22 by market research company Prismark. The first quarter’s anticipated value of the worldwide PCB market is just $16.9 billion, a decline of 12.7% from the prior quarter and 20.0% from the year prior. From the third quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, it was anticipated that the year-over-year negative growth would extend for four straight quarters.
All PCB components, including semiconductor substrates, will experience negative growth in the first quarter, according to this estimate. Due to a decline in manufacturing volume and average selling price, semiconductor substrate sales are very likely to decline by more than 15% from the prior quarter (ASP). The first quarter of 2018 saw an improvement in supply and demand for high value-added semiconductor substrate flip chip (FC)-ball grid array (BGA), which saw considerable growth from 2020, Covid-19’s first year, to last year.
Despite a decline of 12.5% from the prior year, the global PCB market is predicted to reach 17.9 billion dollars in the second quarter, an increase of 6.1% from the previous quarter. The rebound appears to be fuelled by the base effect that persisted into the first quarter, which is notable given that the second quarter is notably off-season in the first half.
The global PCB market is anticipated to rebound in the third and fourth quarters from both the prior quarter and year. A projection of $21.3 billion for the third quarter represents an increase of 18.9% over the second quarter and 1.6% over the prior year. A projection of $22.4 billion for the fourth quarter is an increase of 15.8% from the prior quarter and 5.2% over the year. Prismark perceived the outlook for the second half as a recovery based on seasonality. The year-end peak season and the introduction of the Apple iPhone series occur in the second part of the year.
According to forecasts, the global PCB market will grow by 4.1% this year, from $81.7 billion last year to $78.4 billion. The PCB market’s leader in previous years, semiconductor substrates, is likewise quite likely to have negative growth of more than 8% this year. It is also anticipated that sales of all other goods will decrease. The market has decreased by 7% for general purpose (commodity). Flexible printed circuit board (FPCB) -23% and high multilayer board (MLB) -23% board with a high density multilayer (HDI) of -2%, etc. Weak demand, low inventory, and declining ASP are all detrimental elements.
Demand for consumer electronics is anticipated to be weak throughout the entire year of 2023. In addition, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), networks, high-performance computing (HPC), cars, and electric vehicles (EVs) are anticipated factors.
In the case of the upstream market, it is anticipated that the semiconductor market will decline 6.6% from $573 billion (about 749 trillion won) last year to $535 billion (roughly 700 trillion won) this year. Among semiconductors, negative growth is projected for consumer electronics (-7%), PC (-23%), and mobile (-16%). Nonetheless, growth was anticipated in the automotive (+12%), industrial (+2%), and server (+5%) sectors. This year, it is anticipated that both the server PCB market and the overall server market will grow by 3% and 5%, respectively.
From $252 billion (or roughly 330 trillion won) in 2022 to $263 billion (or roughly 344 trillion won) in 2023, the automotive market is projected to grow by 4.4%. Vehicle shipments are anticipated to expand by 3.6% from 83.6 million units in 2022 to 86.6 million units in 2023, with shipments of electric cars rising by 22.8% from 14.9 million units in 2022 to 18.3 million units (2023).
Prior to this, Prismask predicted the worldwide PCB market at the end of last year but only provided predictions until the second quarter of 2023. Uncertainty in the market was the cause. Freesmarks forecasted at the time that the second quarter of this year would see a continuation of the third quarter of last year’s negative year-over-year growth. The sales prediction for the first quarter dropped from $18.1 billion (about 24 trillion won) to $16.9 billion (roughly 22 trillion won) compared to the forecast at this time, and the sales forecast for the second quarter dropped from $19.1 billion (roughly 25 trillion won) to $17.9 billion (about 23 trillion won).
In addition, the worldwide PCB market in 2022 was predicted to rise by 2.9% when compared to the prior year during this time, but ended up growing by 1.0% to $81.7 billion (approximately 107 trillion won) (about 107 trillion won). This was due to a sharp decline in PCB sales worldwide in the fourth quarter of last year, which were down 15% from the prior quarter and 8% from the third quarter. In general, PCB sales in 4Q are greater than those of the previous quarter because of the high seasonality. Last year, semiconductor substrate sales ($17.4 billion) grew 20.9% over the previous year, leading the worldwide PCB industry to grow by 1.0%.
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